Michael McGrath (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

We have suffered a time constraint ourselves in that sufficient time was not allowed to go through the document and prepare for the meeting. This is far from ideal but I understand the document was just approved by the Cabinet today. I have gone through it as best I can and have identified some questions that I would like the Minister to answer.

Overall, there are positive and negative aspects to the SPU. It represents the first shot in the preparation of budget 2014. The key issue is the assumptions that are made. The whole budget will stand or fall based on the assumptions of export growth and general economic growth. Some sensitivity analysis has been done. Page 30 of the document concerns the impact of changes in world output, the savings rate and the interest rate. If the economy remains relatively stagnant over the next two or three years and if the rate of growth remains between 0% and 1%, which is a distinct possibility, what will be the impact on our deficit and our debt-to-GDP ratio, given that the latter is to rise to 123% this year despite advance funding by the NTMA? What will be our position if the economy remains relatively stagnant? I hope it will not remain so. However, we must entertain that distinct possibility, given all that has emerged in recent years.