Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 30 April 2013

Joint Oireachtas Committee on European Union Affairs

Economic and Monetary Union: Discussion (Resumed) with Central Bank

2:20 pm

Professor Patrick Honohan:

Our current plan it to have it ready by September or October. We are actually talking about that right now while the troika is here. We are considering whether to stick to that, adjust it a little or align it with what is being done elsewhere. One of the things that has been in our minds all along in the European context is whether we need to align our capital assessment exercise with that of the European Banking Authority. It is kind of messy to do them at different times. One ends up using different assumptions and slightly different presentations. There can be confusion. Another factor, in addition to the European Banking Authority, has arisen since we announced our intention to do a PCAR. The single supervisory mechanism will also do a stress test in two phases - an asset quality review and the stress test itself. I can go into the details if the committee wants them. It will be a two-phase thing. It should be completed before the single supervisory mechanism is actually operational. Therefore, it should be completed by the summer of 2014. The European Banking Authority will line up with that in terms of timing and methodology. For good order, it would be great to align them all together. However, that would leave it a bit long. People are interested in the Irish banks. The market is interested. The lenders are interested. Maybe we cannot really leave it that long. We are going to land on that pretty soon. At the moment, plan A is to stick to September or October.

I think that covers the first group of questions, which related to bank capital. I was also asked a number of questions about Cyprus. It is a bit delicate to talk about what has happened in respect of another country. I do not want to go into chapter and verse. Nobody is very pleased with the whole way the Cyprus situation has been worked out. Some elements of it are good and move in the right direction. Some elements were very bad. Some elements were just medium bad. On the whole, I do not think it was the best day's work. I was also asked what it means for us. I do not think it means an awful lot for us, to be perfectly honest. There are many different contextual issues for us. We have done the job, basically, for our banks. One might ask "what about the PCAR?". Basically, grosso modo, we have done the job. As Senator Leyden said, it protected everybody. It protected everybody except the taxpayer. It protected bank depositors and creditors here and in Europe. We have had many discussions about whether it could have been done more cheaply. It probably could have, on the night. They were protected. It is not on, politically, to be thinking in terms of a Cyprus solution. First of all, there is no Cyprus problem. It is not on, politically or domestically. It is not needed. It is not desirable. I see no read-across.

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