Arthur Spring (Kerry North-West Limerick, Labour) | Oireachtas source

I am only kidding. I would like to move on now to forecasting. The professor has said that the models to which he has referred are quite simplistic. We are looking at different elements of modelling. The comments made in the debate generated here over the past two weeks about quantitative easing have been like a broken record. It has been said that austerity is not the only way and that we must have a level of quantitative easing because there is a knock-on effect for the Germans, the French and everybody else if we do not consume their goods. As the Chairman said a while ago, the other large economies of the world have commenced quantitative easing and in order to give ourselves a relative advantage, we need to get to that position. I have been advocating for this for two years, but the debate at European level seems to have kicked off that we cannot keep imposing further austerity. The Government would like to be finished with austerity as soon as possible, but if there is quantitative easing of any size, what kind of effect will that have on our economy?

I have another question related to forecasting. If there is an increase in disposable income for people currently in arrears on their mortgages and if the personal insolvency resolutions allow them to get back to contributing a little more to the economy, what impact will this have on the economy? Will it be positive? How will we deal with the recapitalising of the banks in order to have the write-down or write-off to which the professor referred? Also, we were told that in a prudent economy, some 6% of GDP should be held in savings at any point in time. At the height of the boom we held approximately 2%, and now we are being told we are at approximately 15%. People are being overly conservative with regard to how they approach the savings model currently. In terms of forecasting, the professor mentioned a probability of 1 in 3 of getting to 3% of GDP, a 33% chance. That is a conservative outlook. However if quantitative easing kicks in and we have a little more disposable income in the economy and if people start to release their savings and spend, how much of an impact will that have on finishing with austerity?