Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

Having conferred, Professor John McHale will engage with the multiplier questions, which are very important. As for the scenarios around the things that are hard to model but which can have an impact, such as the promissory notes previously, and obviously other issues concerning the ESM in particular, we have looked at those things a little. We have also looked internally at some scenarios. However, for the promissory note deal in particular, it was so complex that we thought it was not really helpful. Before we knew what was the actual deal it was very difficult because there were so many scenarios one could consider. We did not really have the full information. However, we certainly would think about taking on the Deputy's suggestion in the future, which is very helpful. Moreover, to do a little bit of advertising for our future work, Mr. Diarmaid Smyth and I soon will publish a paper that takes a comprehensive perspective on the Government's balance sheet. While I will not promise the Deputy that it will include scenarios, it will examine these general issues and is a way of trying to inform the debate because these issues are very complicated to think about. The use of scenarios is a good way to deal with problems when one does not know what is the probability but there is an impact and they are useful to have in the back of one's mind. As I stated, it was particularly difficult with the promissory notes because there were so many different things one could envisage. In addition, we were aware of the sensitivity of those discussions and consequently, it is right for the council to be cautious in that area.

As for the impact of the universal mobile telecommunications system, UMTS, licences, these are identified as one-offs in the data and, consequently, we try to look through that in our analysis of structural balances and the like. While I think it was documented anyway, our report also documents what were the Government's assumptions about that. It assumed it would be less than it actually was, which probably is a sensible approach to take, that is, to not spend money one is not really sure of getting and obviously there also were commercial issues. While we will continue to consider the validity of these assumptions and whether we think they are making reasonable judgments in these kinds of difficult situations, it is very hard to call the valuation.