Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Wednesday, 24 April 2013
Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform
Fiscal Assessment Report 2013: Discussion with Irish Fiscal Advisory Council
2:20 pm
Professor John McHale:
If I could return to the question by Senator Byrne that Ireland is being ignored. Many people have said the same. Perhaps the council is less sensitive because we have not seen it that way.
Each of our reports has stated that the Government's fiscal stance is appropriate and in accord with the language of the new fiscal responsibility Act "conducive to prudent economic and budgetary management". We recognise that a judgment call must be made on how to trade the damage done to the economy by additional fiscal adjustments against the advantages in order to improve the fiscal situation and credit worthiness of the State in the long run. That is a difficult call to make. In the reports we made a case for going a bit further in terms of planning adjustments to provide the margin of safety that we talked about before. We made it very clear that we would not, considering that the Government would be following an imprudent overall policy if it did not follow that particular piece of advice. That fact has been missed along the way.
We have asked the Government to provide a more formal response to our reports. It began doing that in response to our last report, the Medium Term Fiscal Statement, MTFS, and it will respond accordingly to our most recent report, the Stability Programme Update. The council felt that the Government's reaction was a little too quick and off the cuff initially. It is important for us to put a more considered response in the appropriate publication and we are happy that the Government is pursuing that.
Some people thought that as soon as the Government did not do exactly what the council told it to do that we should resign. If we were a bunch of prima donnas perhaps that is what we would have done. However, we see ourselves in it for the long haul. The real value of the council will be seen in the longer term, particularly in good times which will come again. I hope that the good times will come again and that we do not repeat the same mistakes.
In the short term, I hope that the council will add to the debate on fiscal policy, give different views and various types of analysis. A small fraction of what is covered in the report was revealed in the opening statement or covered in the press. We carry out a lot of analysis. Mr. Diarmaid Smyth talked about some of it when he mentioned that we analyse macroeconomic and budgetary forecast methods and errors. The council hopes that its analysis will add value and deepen the debate on fiscal policy.
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