Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Thursday, 8 November 2012
Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform
Pre-Budget Submissions: Discussion with Civic Society Representatives and Focus Groups
2:30 pm
Mr. Fergal O'Brien:
I will answer that question. The single biggest reason the domestic economy, because the export economy is performing well, is so weak at present is not because of the impact of austerity but because of the impact of credit flows in the economy. If one looks at the data from the Central Bank and compares the net lending-borrowing of households in 2012 to the situation in 2007, we have had a swing in the region of €12 billion to €16 billion. I think that is a multiple of the impact of austerity. It is the distorted relationship in credit between our households and the banks that is the biggest single reason for the collapse in economic activity. Much of it is related to what happened to the construction sector. Some one in two people who are out of work previously worked in the construction sector. Of course the fiscal adjustment and the austerity is impacting on growth. If we had normal credit conditions, both in terms of demand and supply, there are supply issues in the banks but there are also demand issues in households. At present our households have a particularly high savings ratio. If that savings ratio, as we heard from the IMF was to come down by 4 percentage points it would add 1% to our GDP numbers. That is the single biggest reason that the domestic economy is so weak rather than the fiscal adjustment.
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