Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 7 November 2012

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Education and Social Protection

Pre-Budget Audits: Discussion with Social Justice Ireland and TASC

2:45 pm

Dr. Seán Healy:

Yes, on social welfare generally. It is important that we not get carried away with the misinterpretation of many of the data. Misinterpretation is not confined to Members of either House, for example, but has been evident in troika publications. The fact is that the income of three out of four individuals receiving an income through the social welfare process would be 40% greater if they were employed. This is taken from the ESRI's budget prospectus publication for 2013, which was released a matter of weeks ago. This is the most up-to-date datum. I referred to replacement ratios. The troika has written rubbish - uninformed claptrap - about replacement ratios and has circulated it as factual analysis. It has been very selective with the data it has used and consequently produced inaccurate analysis and an inappropriate policy position. When we met representatives of the troika, we presented it with a document – it is publicly available and on our website – in which we outlined its mistakes. It did not dispute our contention at the time and has not done so since. We have offered to meet the troika's technical teams if they believe our analysis of what the troika has done is in any way questionable.

Let me deal with two points raised by the Chairman, one of which has to do with long-term unemployment and resentment. In this regard, we are again in serious danger of communicating nonsense. There has been much commentary at the highest level of public broadcasting indicating that 100,000 people would not take up a job when there were jobs available before the crash. This is rubbish and not in accordance with the facts. In 2007, the last year before the recession and crash, the unemployment rate was approximately 4%. One must examine long-term unemployment, however, because there are many people unemployed who have just come out of school or college, who have just been let go or who are in transition from one job to another. In 2007, the long-term unemployment rate was 1.3%. Some 28,000 people were unemployed for more than one year. Today, this number has risen to 182,000. Nobody will convince me that the 164,000 who make up the balance are layabouts or useless people who have basically decided they will opt for a lifestyle choice of living on the dole. It is simply not the case.

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