Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour) | Oireachtas source

We want to reach the deficit target. We will have to make a calculation on growth and tax revenues next year. It is like the old story of asking directions, when the person asked says if I were you I would not start from here. It depends on where we start from. The target outturn figure for this year is a deficit of 8.6%. We expect to be comfortably within the target. The previous Department of Finance fiscal forecast indicates a deficit of approximately 8.4%. If we are at 8.4%, then the journey to 7.5% is a shorter journey than if we are at 8.6%. There are a number of factors. The first is what the outturn figure will be for this year; how robust is the inflow of tax; whether it will exceed what we expect and what the projections of that will be for next year and what is the growth estimate. As members are probably aware, we have revised down the growth figure. The original estimate last year for this year was 1.2%. We are still expecting growth of a more modest nature of between 0.5% and 0.7%, depending on whose forecast one takes. Whatever growth figure is determined for next year will also impact on the quantum of money adjustment that we will determine in the budget. The details are not set down in stone in that regard.

The next item on the list of questions relates to increments. The total cost of increments in a full year across the entire public service is €170 million for next year.