Mr. Michael Barry:

It is a very fair question. If the price of feed continues at the current rate, our expansion model will be one of more cows and low inputs. If the price of feed normalises or comes back it will be more attractive for farmers to expand yields.

The current thinking from Teagasc is close to a 20% increase in the herd. If one takes it there are approximately 1 million cows at present, that could be as many as 200,000 cows. The feed is the key issue.

The other side of that is the question of where land prices will go. If there is a limitation on land and if the price of feed has started to come back down, that would suggest it is easier to retain one's herd size and go for extra production. One is talking about expanding production. The Senator has asked a very important question. The European average lactation length is approximately 300 days. In Ireland today, we are milking an average of 260 days. There are 40 days extra production that could be taken from the current herd, and that is where we will get much of our expansion. If we have the opportunity to do that by calving them earlier and keeping them a little longer towards the end of the year, it will give a flatter production curve. There will be less of a demand for investment requirements in terms of stainless steel. That would mean it would not be necessary to have 200,000 extra animals to achieve the goals. One could probably do it with half that number.