Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 27 September 2012

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Fiscal Assessment Report September 2012: Discussion with Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

4:00 pm

Dr. Donal Donovan:

To put it crudely, reducing the figure solely on the basis of adjustments is tough going. It can be done, but it is difficult. Exactly how difficult is for the Members of the Oireachtas to determine, as that is a political question and they have a much better appreciation than any of us of people's tolerance and forbearance for whatever is done. Help would be helpful, if I might phrase it that way, but expectations about what might be on the table should be reduced. We may or may not get something from the ESM. What that something is might not be much, particularly in terms of the net debt. We could sell the banks to a hedge fund in the morning and get €10 billion or thereabouts. We need more than that, but the question of how much more anyone is willing to give is a partly political, partly economic issue. It will not be trillions or even tens of billions of euro more.

A delay or related arraignments will not reduce the stock of this debt - that is, what is already in the debt - but would hopefully stretch it out, thereby allowing for a lower interest rate and a longer amortisation. Help can come from that corner, but it would not solve the problem as much as some people would hope.

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