Professor John McHale:

A necessary condition for debt sustainability is a peak and then a decrease in the debt-to-GDP ratio. This is projected to occur in 2013. However, our report shows that, due to the uncertainties concerning growth, there is a 40% probability that the decrease will not have occurred by 2015. The fiscal adjustment needs to be reinforced to buy extra insurance against that uncertainty.

I keep using the words "debt sustainability" and "creditworthiness" together for a reason. Given the level of debt and the path it will take - namely, peaking before decreasing - the real test of sustainability is whether one is creditworthy. Our nine-year bond yields are a little over 5%. They were higher than 14% in July of last year. Despite the negatives that have been mentioned and the risks outlined in our report, it is important that we not forget that substantial progress has been made. At the risk of making what sounds like a political, but balanced, statement, the fiscal adjustments of this and the former Governments have been successful to date. By no means was that guaranteed. We are now on the path out. We need a bit of luck, although people sometimes do not like hearing that. If we pursue the right policies and get some help, we will be going in the right direction. It can be done even without substantial relief on the official debt. We need to stick to the job.