Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 20 March 2024

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Stability Programme Update: Discussion (Resumed)

Dr. Robert Kelly:

I will break that in two. What is happening in the Irish economy feeds into the euro area economy, so the ECB's decision-making is governed by what happens in terms of the European economy.

The Irish economy is about 2% to 3% of that overall, if we think of the size, so our inflation contributes with that weight. To be brutally honest, our inflation path would not necessarily be the majority of what we would see in terms of the euro area aggregate, although it does contribute.

In terms of our role within the monetary policy path, that is slightly different. Our Governor sits on the governing council, which is the deciding body, but it takes a euro area perspective. Something that is worth reflecting on when we think about the path for interest rates is that there is a lot of similarity between what we see as the path for inflation here and what we are seeing in Europe. There are nuanced differences and maybe we will return to the 2% target a little earlier than the aggregate, which is 2025, but broadly, there is a lot of similarity. In terms of decision-making, it is definitely for the governing council and we would have a weighted input according to the size of our economy.