Dr. Rogier Schulte:

I will address Deputy Ó Cuív's questions in the order they were raised. There is some confusion in the public debate about the impact of Food Harvest 2020 on total bovine numbers. The results from our economic modelling unit, the Frappery Island model, which projects these animal numbers forward up to 2020, suggest that the number of dairy cows will increase in response to the phasing out of the EU milk quota. However, as these additional dairy cows produce additional calves, the model output suggests a contraction of the suckler cow herd. The change in total bovine numbers, dairy cows plus suckler cows, will be very small. It will be a change in the composition of the national herd rather than a growth of the national herd. Sometimes in the public domain we see questions on what will we do with the 50% additional slurry, the increase in the amount of slurry will be in single digits.

That puts the challenge in context.

There are small differences between breeds in terms of methane output. Interestingly, there are greater differences between breeds in terms of milk and meat output. If we are considering efficiency in terms of CO2 per litre of milk or kilogram of meat, there is much to gain from breeding. As is evident from our marginal abatement cost curve, one of the largest potential gains is in the economic breeding index, EBI, which is a composite indicator of the genetic merit of a dairy cow. This includes not only output indicators, but also efficiency indicators and so on.

We are disadvantaged because of our type of farming. The fact that we rely on ruminant farming poses a major challenge to our greenhouse gas balance sheet. Having said that, the debate in the Irish context is different from the debate in the continental context. In Europe, farmers theoretically have a choice between tillage and grassland farming. In Ireland, we must take food security into account. If we do not have ruminants on our grass, what are we going to do with it? This important question is now being taken into account by the European Commission in the post-2020 framework on greenhouse gases. For the first time, the term "food security" appears in the Commission document under the agriculture heading in the context of greenhouse gases. The fact that we export between 80% and 90% of our produce has opened the door at the Commission to ensure that any new policy or accounting framework recognises this contribution to food security. How this will be worked out in the details is open to negotiation.