Rose Conway-Walsh (Mayo, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

Dr. O'Toole may wish to submit an answer to my next question to the committee. This relates to the national development plan, NDP, which is the multi-annual plan. As the multi-annual plan, it is important that we take inflation and economic growth into account. For example, the EU multi-annual financial framework is a seven-year budget. The EU institutions in negotiation always provide detailed figures in constant prices and current prices. They explicitly outline the deflator they use for projecting the current costs into the future. What does the Government need to do to improve the way it does the present or multi-annual planning there? There have been examples of it. The recently published Building for the Future document on the Defence Forces calls for a level of ambition based on constant 2022 prices. Should this be the norm in multi-annual planning? Would it be better to use spending in constant figures or in percentage of GNI, rather than just in current costs? What we saw in budget 2024 was the Government staying within the NDP. The core capital spending is below NDP targets. With the non-core capital, it is just above but, in essence, in line with the NDP. Obviously, the NDP was reviewed in 2021. That reviewed NDP set out departmental capital ceilings to 2024 and those ceilings have largely been adhered to. However, the reviewed NDP also sets targets for the percentage of GNI* for capital investment. The targets it set for 2023 and 2024 were 4.9% and 5.1% respectively. Now it is estimated by the Department to be 4.1% and 4.3%. That is a 0.8% shortfall, or more than 15% behind profile, in both years. By my calculations, that equates to a shortfall of approximately €2.3 billion or €2.4 billion each year. Does that mean the Government is far behind on capital investment in real terms? Does budget 2024 go anywhere near recognising the severity of the situation in terms of investment through the NDP?