Jen Cummins (Dublin South Central, Social Democrats)
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550. To ask the Minister for Education and Skills his plans to ensure capacity across the further and higher education sector for the 19% increase of students he is projecting by 2034. [50686/26]

James Lawless (Kildare North, Fianna Fail)
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I thank the deputy for her question, which I understand relates to my Department’s recently published report entitled “Projections of Demand for Higher Education 2025–2045”.

This report projects that full-time HE enrolment demand will increase over the coming decade by between 33,000 and 39,000, reaching a peak of between 244,347 and 250,857 in 2033/34. Enrolment demand is then projected to decline over the subsequent decade, to between approximately 225,000 and 231,000 by 2045.

These projections provide an important input to support policy development and investment planning for the higher education sector. However, it should be noted that projections are not predictions, they show what would happen, as long as clearly defined set of assumptions hold.

The HE sector adjusts to changing enrolment demand on an ongoing basis, and my Department supports the sector in accommodating changing demand though a number of measures.

The annual estimates process is an important process through which I seek to ensure that demographic pressures are addressed though increased HEA grant allocations.

The provision of demographic funding aligns to the Funding the Future policy framework to have sustainable core funding. This framework, published in 2022, outlines the Government’s vision for how HE will be funded, and how this will support students, employers and wider society.

There has been a significant improvement in the funding to the HE sector since 2022, with €174 million in additional funding secured through Budgets 2023 to 2026. This funding has enabled the approval of a significant uplift in the ceiling of core staff for the HE sector.

The estimates process for Budget 2027 has commenced and while I cannot confirm specific items that will be included in Budget 2027, I can assure the Deputy that I will be seeking the best possible outcome for the higher education sector.

In respect of capital planning, investment is supported where there is a clearly demonstrated need for increased capacity or specialised facilities, informed by learner growth, demographic trends, and skills and workforce requirements, and subject to the availability of funding. Capital investment is allocated through competitive processes, with projects progressing in accordance with the Infrastructure Guidelines. Funding is guided by the National Development Plan 2026–2030 and delivered through programme-based funding streams aligned to specific policy objectives.

The higher education sector is also proactive in adjusting to changing enrolment demand. Irish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) use a combination of historical and real-time data published by the Central Applications Office, to project enrolment intake. HEIs analyse data and trends in relation to first-preference choices, the overall application volume, as well as changes in student demographics to gauge demand and predict enrolment intake. This enables them to adjust their planning as needed to account for projected growth.

Finally, my Department is proactive in identifying and addressing critical skills gaps. My officials are leading a working group across government to respond to growing demands through a targeted programme of expansion for prioritised critical skills needs across the health, education and disability services. In Budget 2026 I announced an additional 1,100 annual places for students across these programmes. A new Expression of Interest (EOI) has been recently launched, which targets expansion and new programmes to address workforce demand and service capacity. It is my intention to bring a memo to government on this process in the coming weeks.