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Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: As the Deputy knows, the EU is currently considering the multi-annual financial framework, MFF, which is not anywhere close to being agreed at this point. However, the proposal within the MFF does envisage a new special instrument, namely, the Ukraine reserve, for an amount of €17 billion. In addition to that amount in grants and provisioning, the Ukraine facility would also cover...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: Is the Deputy referring to a risk of default?

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: The Deputy will be aware that Ireland's participation in Europe is very strong and active. We are engaged in the negotiations with regard to the MFF as a very strong, committed European partner. The new MFF has not been agreed yet. Clearly, there is some risk of default at some point and in that scenario all member states would be exposed. We would hope the exposure would be extremely...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: The Department carries out risk assessments at all times throughout all of this process. The way in which it is engaged means that there is a constant risk assessment and a constant attempt to work out the exposure to Ireland. However, it is not possible to work out at this stage what will happen in Ukraine in June next year, never mind in June five years from now, and the extent to which...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: The exercise in preparation for this Bill is an exercise in risk assessment and working out what Ireland's possible exposure is. I would stress that the Bill covers the interest subsidy. Ireland's share of it is capped, by the EU and in this Bill, at €63.625 million. Any potential exposure much later would come via the EU budget contributions, which are covered by the European...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: That is the risk.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: The Commission, which obviously we are working within, has taken the risk and the uncertainty in relation to a war context. Generally, a 9% provisioning rate applies for MFA loans to countries addressing a balance of payments crisis. Generally, that is the nature of it but there is the broader longer-term risk of default. Applying the current GNI key as a measure of estimating Ireland's...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: I do not know how else to answer.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: Yes. That is what I am trying to give the Deputy.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: What I am trying to say is how closely Ireland is working within the EU on the development of these programmes. When the Deputy says the Commission has conducted this assessment, it has done so with Ireland as a partner in that work. All of the work that is being done with the Commission - the work between the Irish State, the Department of Finance, the Permanent Representation and the...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: We take the same view as the Commission. As the Deputy said, the Commission took a view that 70% was set to contain the risk of non-repayment in line with the principles of sound financial management. The composition of the guarantee coverage is allocated to paid-in provisioning of 9% from the EU budget and callable guarantees from member states of a further 61% of the total loan amounts....

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: We share the same risk assessment as the Commission, having contributed to it. That is a reasonable inference. What I am trying to say to the Deputy is the overall risk, of course, is the ultimate non-repayment. We are trying to do everything we can to mitigate the risk, the 70% risk, the ultimate risk of non-repayment, but we have done these assessments collectively together over time.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: Could the Deputy be more specific? Is the Deputy asking what we envisage it will be spent on in Ukraine?

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: The memorandum of understanding which is entered into between the European Commission and the Ukraine Government makes clear that the objective is to support Ukraine's macrofinancial stability given the astute financing needs triggered by the war circumstances. It aims to support structural reforms aimed at improving overall macroeconomic management, strengthening economic governance and...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: I thank the Chair for highlighting that and I am more than happy to answer his very reasonable question. Sections 3 and 6 are very alike and use some of the same structure and format in terms of legislative drafting. This Bill is the overall enabling provision for how the funds may be used for the future. Obviously, in terms of legislative drafting, the words "may" and "shall" are very...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: I cannot answer that at this stage because it has not been agreed yet. It is the subject of discussions at EU level at this stage. I am certainly happy to come back to the Deputy once that is agreed, but we cannot comment on it yet because the next MFF has not been agreed. It is being agreed within that context.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: I ask the Deputy to forgive me. I thought he was talking about the next Ukraine facility.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: Is the Deputy referring to section 6 of the Bill?

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: Section 6 is part of what we have just discussed. It is the provision for the EBRD for the-----

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Finance (State Guarantees, International Financial Institution Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2023: Committee Stage (29 Nov 2023)

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: We have agreed sections 17 and 18.

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