Anne Rabbitte (Galway East, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

I thank Senator Casey for raising this Commencement matter, which I am taking on behalf of the Minister for Health. I will clarify how the data presented by NPHET and communicated by Government relate directly to indoor dining and specifically in each of the five scenarios presented in table 1.

I welcome the opportunity to address the House and will begin by highlighting the significant and sustained progress that has been made in suppressing the virus over recent months due in no small part to the significant efforts of people across the country. This progress has been sustained during the recent reopening in April, May and June. Our vaccination programme continues to make significant progress. However, the increase in cases of the more transmissible Delta variant poses a significant threat to the progress made. Modelling shows that had we proceeded with the proposed relaxation of the public health restrictions from 5 July 2021, over the period to the end of September, under the most optimistic scenario, we could see 250 deaths, more than 1,500 hospitalisations and nearly 200 ICU admissions. Under the most pessimistic scenario, these modelling figures ranged to over 2,000 deaths, over 1,500 ICU admissions and nearly 13,000 hospital admissions. Even the central scenarios modelled would result in significant mortality and pressure on our hospital system that we simply cannot contemplate.

The models work by examining the levels of viral transmission that occurred in summer 2020 and inferring from that, having factored in the protective effect of vaccination but also the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and the likely level of viral transmission had we proceeded with the proposed relaxation of public health restrictions from 5 July 2021, including the full resumption of indoor hospitality. The phase 3 reopening of 29 June 2020, which included the reopening of the cafes, restaurants, pubs and hotel bars serving food and holiday parks, was associated with a step change in viral transmission, which was sustained through July and August with effective reproduction numbers increasing from below 1.0 to somewhere between 1.4 and 1.6. The models assume that the reopening of indoor hospitality would lead to at least similar levels of close indoor social mixing, which is an opportunity for viral transmission. This is a reasonable assumption and it is worth noting that the reopening of 29 June 2020 was more limited than the original plan for 5 July, as only pubs serving food opened in June 2020. The model then factors in the additional protection of the vaccination but also the additional transmissibility of the Delta variant. The models clearly demonstrated that if the Delta variant had not been introduced, we could have safely proceeded with the planned reopening of 5 July 2021. However, the models also clearly show the Delta variant becoming dominant and the very high risks that increased close social contact in the unvaccinated and partially vaccinated group would lead to a significant fourth wave of disease in terms of cases, severe disease, hospitalisation and mortality. The epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in respect of infection in Ireland and internationally shows that the primary sites of transmission are private households; social gatherings, including hospitality; and workplaces. They are not independent, in that increased social mixing in hospitality and workplaces drives transmission into and between households. It is not possible, therefore, to precisely quantify how many cases, hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths are directly attributable to indoor dining in each scenario. Based on the national and international epidemiological evidence, the resumption of indoor hospitality as a whole is likely to be the major contributor to the increase in cases, hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths in each scenario. The Delta variant poses a very serious risk and I cannot overstate that.

NPHET advised that higher-risk activities involving significant levels of social mixing in indoor environments should only be permitted for those who are vaccinated or immune. Last Tuesday, the Government announced the next phase of reopening the economy and society. I will hand back to Senator Casey.