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Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: I thank the Chair and colleagues for being here. I am pleased to be here with my colleague, the Minister, Deputy Donohoe, and our respective officials today to discuss the stability programme update. As members are aware, the document was published in draft form on 23 April this year. In accordance with our legal requirements, the final version of the document was submitted to European...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: We have a range of different sources of funding for social and affordable housing, cost rental and so on, including through the Land Development Agency, LDA, where there is capital capacity of about €5 billion of funding for the development of such homes. We have HBFI. We have ISIF, which is focused on private development, but that yields social and affordable housing as well in the...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: That also will be part of the new five-year medium-term plan that will be laid out in the autumn. It will incorporate that time horizon as well, which is why both Departments have a lot of work to do in respect of the SES first, then of course the budget and, as part of that, the medium-term fiscal plan which will have to look five years into the future using all of the key fiscal metrics.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund Bill 2024: Committee Stage (Resumed) (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: At the outset, I thank committee members for facilitating this session this morning. I know it is out of their normal calendar cycle, so I do appreciate the co-operation of colleagues in that regard. I will say a few words on section 8 first and I will then deal with some of the specific issues that colleagues have raised. Section 8(1) provides the mechanism for contributions to the...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund Bill 2024: Committee Stage (Resumed) (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: Ultimately, that question, which we will come to consider in more detail in section 26, is a matter of judgment. The criteria are laid out within section 26. Factors will have to be considered such as the general Government balance at the point in time, corporation tax receipts, GDP, employment, unemployment and any other such matters that IFAC and then the Minister in his or her...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund Bill 2024: Committee Stage (Resumed) (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: My view on that is there is not a one-to-one relationship there. If we have a deficit of X, it does not necessarily mean additional borrowing of X by the NTMA. There is considerable flexibility in its view of what is required to be held on reserve. It has built up a considerable level of cash and liquid financial assets. Based on the numbers we have here, I stand over the plan to continue...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund Bill 2024: Committee Stage (Resumed) (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: I thank Deputies Doherty and Durkan. I will deal first with the issue of corporate tax and the OECD, which Deputy Durkan raised. It is very difficult to make a prediction when it comes to corporate tax reform and the potential cost for Ireland. There are scenarios in which, if pillar 1 is agreed and implemented in 2026, the cost could be greater than we have already provided for. There...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund Bill 2024: Committee Stage (Resumed) (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: We are using some of the windfall corporation tax receipts to complement-----

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund Bill 2024: Committee Stage (Resumed) (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: -----the national development plan. To go through some of the numbers, last year almost 33,000 homes were built. Just under 12,000 new social homes were delivered last year, up from about 10,200 the previous year. In 2023, there were more than 8,000 new-build social homes, there were more than 1,800 acquisitions and 2,000 were delivered through leasing programmes. More than 4,000...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund Bill 2024: Committee Stage (Resumed) (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: I will read a short speaking note on the section before I deal with the specific question. The section provides the mechanism to reduce or pause the annual payments to the future Ireland fund. It is important to provide the option for payments to be either reduced or not made into the fund when there are negative fiscal or economic conditions. While the analysis of whether there is a...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund Bill 2024: Committee Stage (Resumed) (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: Or is likely to be.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund Bill 2024: Committee Stage (Resumed) (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: The important point is that externally investors and those who are making decisions about their relationship with Ireland have welcomed this Bill. They welcome that the Government is forward-looking and that we are now planning for the long term in the management of our public finances. Among the most influential actors are ratings agencies, whether we like it or not. Reading the various...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund Bill 2024: Committee Stage (Resumed) (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: GDP is used for a number of reasons not least because we believe it does capture that inherent volatility that is relevant to windfall corporate tax receipts. The investors want to see the funds build up and to see Ireland become more secure in managing the public finances and managing the economy, and combining that with an ambitious programme of public capital investment. I believe this...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund Bill 2024: Committee Stage (Resumed) (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: Yes.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund Bill 2024: Committee Stage (Resumed) (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: From 2036.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund Bill 2024: Committee Stage (Resumed) (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: That is the last year of the 12 years.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund Bill 2024: Committee Stage (Resumed) (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: If it is improving but "that there has been, or is likely to be in the subsequent year." In that scenario the Deputy is saying the subsequent year is likely to be improving but if that follows "a deterioration" then, yes, it is open to the Minister to come to that view.

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund Bill 2024: Committee Stage (Resumed) (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: I understand that we are taking amendments Nos. 5 to 7, inclusive, together. As I understand it, the intention of the Deputy’s amendments is that the resources of the future Ireland fund would be available to be drawn down in 2034. I will start by mentioning the fund’s interaction with the public finances around that time in the mid-2030s. In the Bill, as drafted, it is...

Select Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach: Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund Bill 2024: Committee Stage (Resumed) (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: I thank the Deputy. The design of the future Ireland fund allows for it to be drawn down as the Government of the day decides. There are already recognised pressures on expenditure in respect of ageing costs, but these are not the only costs. There are likely to be other pressures on expenditure such as climate and digital transition costs. While there are identifiable issues to be...

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