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Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: We have a range of different sources of funding for social and affordable housing, cost rental and so on, including through the Land Development Agency, LDA, where there is capital capacity of about €5 billion of funding for the development of such homes. We have HBFI. We have ISIF, which is focused on private development, but that yields social and affordable housing as well in the...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: I will come back to the Deputy with the detail of that.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: The note will address that as well.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: Even within the net expenditure rule, you can spend however much you want, but you have to raise revenue to match it. It is a binding rule. It is a net expenditure rule. You have to set out your medium-term path for the duration of the parliament of that country. In the case of Ireland, it is five years. There is the opportunity for a reset following a general election, when a Government...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: There is an escape clause provision that could be considered by the European authorities and provided to individual member states or collectively. There is the provision and flexibility to address that scenario.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: There is that provision for the escape clause but I would underline the point that it is-----

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: Yes, it can.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: It can be by agreement for an individual member state. Bear in mind that the rule is a net expenditure rule. If a government wishes to respond and spend additional money in a particular area, provided it can be funded by additional revenue-raising measures, the net expenditure rule is still maintained and respected, so there is in-built flexibility as well, which is fundamentally the net...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: If I can I add a point, the Deputy makes a fair point about the reality that in parts of the country, the cost of building a new home is such that the price that would have to be charged is more than the market in that area is able to support. That is a challenge. The question is how do we calibrate the supports introduced by the Minister, Deputy O'Brien, funded by the Minister, Deputy...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: I thank the Deputy. The legal requirement is to provide the forecasts for the current year plus three, so we have done that up to the end of 2027. The SPU is governed by EU-wide rules. As the summer economic statement, SES, is not, we are now examining how much further into the future horizon we can go as part of the summer economic statement. I have asked my officials to work towards a...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: We met the legal requirements-----

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: That also will be part of the new five-year medium-term plan that will be laid out in the autumn. It will incorporate that time horizon as well, which is why both Departments have a lot of work to do in respect of the SES first, then of course the budget and, as part of that, the medium-term fiscal plan which will have to look five years into the future using all of the key fiscal metrics.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: We are working through the level of detail at the moment. It is still in the early stages. The SES will be complete by June or into July in the normal manner and we are working through whatever level of detail we can provide within the SES. We will provide as much as possible in terms of detail and projections over which we can stand.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: I did not say that it would not be-----

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: I anticipate the fiscal forecast that will go further into the future in the SES will involve those key metrics, which certainly would include the general Government balance, the Exchequer balance, expenditure and taxation under key headings. The precise level of detail and aggregation, however, is something we are working through at the moment.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: In July, before the recess.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: Before the summer recess, yes.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Stability Programme Update: Discussion (8 May 2024)

Michael McGrath: -----and we continue to consider IFAC's view on longer-term fiscal projections. It has merit and that is why, in the context of the summer economic statement, that is the intention.

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