Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour)
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I wish to advise the House of the following matters in respect of which notice has been given under Standing Order 21 and the name of the Member in each case: (1) Deputy Jimmy Deenihan - the issuing of temporary fishing vessel safety certificates; (2) Deputy Ulick Burke - the urgent need for the Minister for Education and Skills to indicate when St. Catherine's national school, Aughrim, County Galway will be given the go ahead for the construction of a new school, given that the class room sizes are one third the size of the regular classrooms in other national schools, there is now a very serious health and safety arising from overcrowding and lack of other appropriate; (3) Deputy Paul Kehoe - that the cuts by the Department of Education and Skills affecting the number of special needs assistants allocated to schools working with children with autism in specialised units be reversed. A large public march was held in Enniscorthy, County Wexford last weekend as parents and members of the local community are incensed by the cuts affecting the most vulnerable in society and depriving them of the right to equality in education; (4) Deputy Michael Creed - to raise the matter of the implementation of a national foot screening programme for diabetics, the provision of podiatry care for diabetics and, in particular, the withdrawal of services from Macroom Community Hospital since January 2010; (5) Deputy Frank Feighan - to ask the Minister for Education and Skills to explore the possibility of providing third level education college for Carrick-on-Shannon. Has the Minister any proposals based on the fact that Carrick-on-Shannon is now a regional town?; (6) Deputy James Bannon - the need for the Minister for Justice and Law Reform to ensure that a person who is severely brain damaged following a car accident and requires urgent treatment will be transferred to the care of the Department of Health and Children; (7) Deputy Thomas P. Broughan - the application of law in regard to an ongoing matter (details supplied); (8) Deputy Jan O'Sullivan - the position regarding the new national paediatric hospital; (9) Deputy Joe Costello - the need for the Minister for Transport to maintain competition in the airline industry in Ireland; (10) Deputy Michael McGrath - the position regarding the construction of a school (details supplied) in County Cork; (11) Deputy Kieran O'Donnell - to call on the Minister for Health and Children to provide adequate resources to deal with the overcrowding of accident and emergency services at Mid-West Regional Hospital, Limerick and to make a statement on the progress of reconfiguration of services in the mid-west; and (12) Deputy Tom Hayes - can the Minister for Transport outline what his Department has planned in terms of providing additional signage for long-standing food and beverage facilities in towns off the motorway network, in light of the news that previously planned services on the motorway will now not go ahead, particularly on the Dublin-Cork motorway; and if facilities will be allowed signage given that services are an important facility to prevent road accidents.

The matters raised by Deputies Michael McGrath, Jan O'Sullivan, Jimmy Deenihan and Joe Costello have been selected for discussion.

^ ^

Enda Kenny (Mayo, Fine Gael)
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Yesterday, the Fine Gael spokesperson on finance and his colleagues were briefed by the Department of Finance on the true figures regarding the economy. To say that the figures that were produced were outrageous is an understatement. They were appalling and they show that, from the beginning of the banking crisis, the Taoiseach has known the situation was far worse than anything the people were being told. Not only was the economy being destroyed by the Government but it was wilfully concealing the truth of the extent of that destruction from the people in what amounts to a national catastrophe. This cannot go on. We have lost trust in the Taoiseach and his Government and in their ability to tell us the truth.

This party will play its part in responding to this national crisis and we will produce a response to it but we will not do so on the basis of what the Taoiseach tells us anymore because every figure produced by the Department of Finance and the Government has been wrong. How many times have we turned the corner? How many times have the growth rates been pointing seriously upwards? How many times have we been told, even by the Taoiseach, that the extent of the deficit could not be more than €4 billion? I will no longer operate on the basis of the figures produced by Government. I want an independent verification process for these figures.

Timmy Dooley (Clare, Fianna Fail)
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Bring in George Lee.

Enda Kenny (Mayo, Fine Gael)
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If my party and I are to produce a report, it has to be on the basis of figures that can be stood over. Independent, competent people must be brought in who can validate and verify the figures given to us by the Department of Finance yesterday and this should be done only for that purpose.

Séamus Kirk (Louth, Ceann Comhairle)
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Has the Deputy a question?

Enda Kenny (Mayo, Fine Gael)
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This is unprecedented and the discussions in which we are expected to participate have to be conducted in public in this Chamber because the people must be consulted and they must know what is happening. If this happened in any other western democracy, the government would have resigned long ago in disgrace.

Séamus Kirk (Louth, Ceann Comhairle)
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Has the Deputy a question?

Enda Kenny (Mayo, Fine Gael)
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Will the Taoiseach put in place an independent verification process for these figures in order that we will know what the true starting point is and can stand over it? Is he prepared to conduct the discussions that must now take place, to deal with a national crisis that he and his Government have led this country into, in this Chamber in public in order that at long last the people will know that the truth is about to dawn?

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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I welcome the fact that Deputy Kenny's finance spokesperson availed of the briefing session yesterday. It is unfortunate that the tone and content of what he had to say today comes away from what has been a responsible approach that everyone has taken recognising the situation that Ireland, as a country, will face. I will not reciprocate in the same way, although I would have good reason to do so.

Paul Kehoe (Wexford, Fine Gael)
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The Taoiseach's policies caused this.

Alan Shatter (Dublin South, Fine Gael)
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The Taoiseach should apologise and leave the stage.

Séamus Kirk (Louth, Ceann Comhairle)
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Deputy Shatter, allow the Taoiseach to continue.

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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The consolidation in the public finances has been ongoing since the summer of 2008 when this issue first arose. I do not want to go over old ground because we need to look to the present and to the future but there has been a suggestion that the Government needs to begin a consolidation. The consolidation aspect of our policies - these policies did not win unanimous favour in the House - has meant €7.5 billion less in spending and taxation than would otherwise be the case.

The four-year plan is being prepared and an opportunity can be given for everyone to debate it in the House. I said earlier today that I would welcome a debate here. It also requires us to see what measure of agreement can be found. Obviously there are political differences and the roles of Government and Opposition differ. However, I believe that it would be helpful and that the people would like to see to what extent we can achieve agreement. The changes in the costs of borrowing and the great turbulence in financial markets, the medium-term prospect of the cost of funding and the question of the growth prospects for the European economy, for the world economy and, by extension, the Irish economy which is determined very much by those external circumstances, will have to be taken into account. A prudential view has to be taken so that we can provide a credible pathway and ensure that those who fund the deficits for our sovereign debt are aware that all of us are committed to making the adjustment and correction necessary by 2014. That is the purpose of the exercise in which we are engaged and to do so as collectively as possible.

I will not reciprocate with regard to the political charge made; I will deal with it on another occasion, perhaps during the debate next week.

Enda Kenny (Mayo, Fine Gael)
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I assure the Taoiseach that for many years the Fine Gael Party has put forward the proposition that the entire strategy for budgetary presentation and for economic planning should be changed. Fianna Fáil in particular has never wanted to be in this House to the extent that it should be nor to answer the charges and the questions in the way it should.

Paul Kehoe (Wexford, Fine Gael)
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Hear, hear.

Enda Kenny (Mayo, Fine Gael)
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The Taoiseach can take it from me now that the Fine Gael Party will continue to play its part in any necessary consensus. We will support what we believe in and we will oppose what we do not believe in. From the point of honesty and truth and having everything above board, if we are to start serious planning to deal with the catastrophe wreaked on the Irish people by the Taoiseach's Government, we have to know that the starting point is true and valid and can be stood over. From that perspective, none of the figures given to us by the Department of Finance or the Government, by the Minister for Finance and the Taoiseach, have stood up. I cannot believe a word from this Government's mouth when it tells me this is the starting point for preparing my plans and my response to the crisis. I want the integrity of the figures given to the spokespersons on finance yesterday to be independently validated.

The Taoiseach has known since the Central Statistics Office last June reduced its estimate of the size of the economy that things were not going to be the way he had predicted. He has known since the Minister for Finance saw the pattern of tax revenues that the economy was not going to be in the shape he was saying. He has known since last March that the bank bailout was going to be much bigger than was predicted in the stability plan last December. Why did the Taoiseach not act sooner when he knew these facts were coming down the track? Why did he close down this Chamber for three months last June when he could have introduced an emergency budget to stabilise the situation? Why did he not act in the interests of the Irish people? He let it drift right through the summer and now the people face a financial Everest for which they are being asked to pay and for which they were not responsible and in respect of which the politicians in here, in particular, the Opposition parties, are being asked to come forward with their plans. We will come forward with our plans but I need to know what is the starting point that can be stood over because every figure the Taoiseach has given has been wrong. This is a fundamental breach of trust and it is a situation I cannot tolerate any longer.

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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I have to respond to that charge. We should move from rhetoric to reality.

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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The fundamental parameters of the budget for 2010, as set out by the Minister for Finance, Deputy Brian Lenihan, in December 2009, are being broadly respected. Expenditures are in line and are underneath projected targets. Total taxation, while slightly down, is only down by 2% overall on the income tax side. We are seeing a deficit, for which we budgeted, of approximately 11.5% last year which is coming in at around 11.9% as things stand.

Bernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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The bank debt.

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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We should just deal with the facts. The decisions we took resulted in €4 billion being taken out of the economy last year - they were opposed by the Opposition - and have brought us from a position of contraction in the economy of more than 10% of GNP in 2009 to stabilisation this year of 0% and very little growth, if any. The whole purpose of further consolidation is to bring the public finances further into order, as well as identifying sectors for growth, to promote growth in the economy and to achieve a position whereby we can get to net employment in the country when coming out of this crisis. That is the Government's strategy and it has been validated and supported by international institutions of repute, the independent institutions of whom the Deputy speaks.

I say to Deputy Kenny that it does not add to our debate one whit to suggest that the Department of Finance did not provide a full, independent assessment of the situation, taking into account many predictions. On the question of forecasting, by definition, forecasting has to involve certain assumptions which are put into the model and an outcome is produced. What has been clear is that the growth forecast for the European economy, the world economy and, by extension, the Irish economy has to be modified somewhat as a result. We would also contend that the flexibility of our labour markets has been such that we have been able to benefit from a pick-up in world trends and output better than most because of the open nature of our economy. It is not, therefore, correct to say that every figure the Deputy received is incorrect. The budgetary targets as set out in December 2009 for the financial year 2010 are broadly as outlined.

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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This has brought about a situation of stabilisation. We also have to contend with the increased costs in the banks. The Deputy asked about the figures. The establishment of the National Asset Management Agency enabled every loan to be valued and examined, loan by loan-----

Bernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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It has taken two years.

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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I remind the Deputy it was opposed by some in the House. NAMA was the mechanism by which one could obtain a credible outcome to the valuation of those distressed assets in the property and construction portfolios of the banks. The establishment of NAMA and the credibility established by the Financial Regulator and by the Central Bank-----

P J Sheehan (Cork South West, Fine Gael)
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Where was he for the past ten years?

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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-----in addition to the reforms we have introduced and which have been implemented here in the House by way of statutory changes, etc., have provided the ability to deal with that issue in that way. This represents about 10% of the debt repayment that will be involved next year. However, that is not the only source of our problem. The real source of our problem, with which we have been contending for some time, has been the hole in the public finances as a result of reduced revenues. There is a need to bring expenditure back progressively over time, although not in a Draconian way in the first instance, albeit I recognise that any change in expenditure levels can bring its own hardships and difficulties. This has been the Government's strategy. The Government has moved from contraction measures to stabilisation and now we have to find growth. One of the difficulties in the significant budgetary correction over the next four years will be how to find this balance between budgetary correction and the need to maintain growth in the economy. This is an issue we have to further discuss and we have to examine the data.

I remind the Deputy that the data being provided is from a series of forecasts which are precisely that, using one's best judgment in the best circumstances to try to predict what way things will go in the future. The past two or three years have seen a degree of turbulence and change which has been unprecedented in the past 70 years.

Bernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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The forecasts on the bank debts were wrong.

Eamon Gilmore (Dún Laoghaire, Labour)
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When the Minister for Finance came in here on budget day last year, he introduced the budget and told us the worst was over. All through the year he has repeated that the worst is over, that we have turned the corner and that the Government's plan is working. As recently as 19 September, in an interview with The Sunday Tribune, he told us we had turned the corner. When he introduced the budget he told us there was a remaining €7.5 billion of budgetary adjustments to be made between last year and 2014. The briefing of Opposition finance spokespersons by Department of Finance officials shows that the figure of €7.5 billion is way wide of the mark. The figure now being discussed and considered is significantly higher than that. The worst is yet to come. I appreciate that not every budgetary figure and projection made by the Minister for Finance on budget day will come in bang on the button. However, the extent to which the projections were completely wrong is utterly astonishing. I do not know anywhere else where the Minister for Finance gives a Budget Statement and within one year the projections within the statement were so seriously out of kilter. How did the Government get the figures so badly wrong?

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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The answer is twofold. Deputy Gilmore omitted the other issue over the course of the year. It was not simply about whether the growth rate was 0%, 0.5% or -0.5% or whether the current budget deficit was 11.9%, 11.5% or 11%. There was also the banking issue, which provided a spike in our current budget deficit for this year. Given what we had to provide for in that regard, the increase in the national debt was of the order of 20%. The increase in the deficit means the promissory note system, on which Opposition finance spokespersons were briefed yesterday, provides for paying over a longer period of time, as in a mortgage situation. That must be dealt with. I do not want to say that this is the sole source of our problems and annoyance, upset and frustration about this exists. However, it is 10% of the repayment we must make next year in respect of the repayment of debt interest.

Regarding the change for the future, the assumptions laid out in the last budget are very clear. The economic outlook is weaker than previously anticipated. The figure taken for last year's budget medium-term projection was within the parameters of various forecasts made by other reputable international and national institutions. It is also important to recognise the impact of consolidation on economic growth and that balance must be struck. The budget framework set for December is broadly in line with projections. As bad as things have been, it is not correct to say that things have got worse. A contraction of 10% in 2009 has been converted to a stabilisation in the economy this year where there has not been a further contraction in the economy. From where we were coming, this was a good performance since we did not contract by the same percentage this year. That happened because we took decisions on spending and other areas that did not meet with universal approval from the House. Can next year and the years after be better? Can we have an economy that can grow in the context of this consolidation? We must get the balance right between a measure of consolidation and ensuring the economy can grow through sectors of the economy where there was already growth this year. There are areas of the economy growing but this is not sufficient to overcome the contraction in areas like construction and retail. I understand the Opposition parties' predilection for rhetorical phrases but they should not suggest that we are in a catastrophic situation when we have gone from -10% to 0% and consolidating. Difficult decisions must be taken and there are no soft options. The level of consolidation will be greater than previously proposed for the reasons given, including weaker growth and higher borrowing costs in the main.

Structural policy is also an issue. We must change our policies because if we continue on a no policy change basis, we will be in an unsustainable situation. In ordinary terms that people understand, if one is spending €50 and only taking in €31 or €32 the situation cannot continue year on year or month on month.

Bernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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We are glad to hear that now.

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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We are proposing closing off that gap over time in a way that will convince. The main Opposition parties have also indicated that we will stand over our commitment as members of the eurozone to get the deficit down to 3% by 2014.

Jim O'Keeffe (Cork South West, Fine Gael)
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Will the Taoiseach not at least say "mea culpa"?

Eamon Gilmore (Dún Laoghaire, Labour)
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The Taoiseach says the economic outlook now is weaker. Last year the Taoiseach was telling us there would be rapid growth in the Irish economy in 2010. Now he reminds me about the banking issue. I had not forgotten about the banking issue and he has reminded us that this is adding 20% to the problem. The Taoiseach said the cost of the banking crisis would be borne by the sector and assured us we would have to pay nothing for it. The Taoiseach got that wrong by €45 billion or €50 billion. We were given the growth projections last year but the Taoiseach is now saying these are wrong and must be revised. We were given a figure for the budgetary correction over a four-year period and the Taoiseach is now saying this must be significantly increased. Having got it wrong so often, repeatedly and so dramatically, where is the Taoiseach's credibility? He is offering us a process and has arranged for a meeting of the party leaders tomorrow, which I will attend, but he must examine the process he is asking us to engage in. The Government got us into this mess and every prediction and projection made over the past two and half years has been incorrect and dramatically incorrect in most cases. The Taoiseach wants the Opposition to solve the problem for him, he wants the people of the country to pay for it and meanwhile he wants to stay in office. Does he seriously expect us to agree to this?

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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I do not want to say anything that is negative in respect of a discussion where we try to build consensus. I understand that during Leaders' Questions, people have the opportunity to get into a rhetorical flow but I will answer the points raised by Deputy Gilmore. We faced a crisis in this country in 2008 and the banking guarantee was the means by which we maintained a semblance of a banking system that has since had to be repaired in full. The proposal of the Labour Party at the time would have brought down the banking system and hundreds of thousands of jobs would have been lost. That is a fact.

Ruairi Quinn (Dublin South East, Labour)
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That is not a fact.

Róisín Shortall (Dublin North West, Labour)
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The Taoiseach should count for himself.

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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Leaving that behind and moving to the budgetary issue, as late as last week there was a suggestion from Deputy Gilmore that he felt it was possible to meet the requirements of the situation while protecting major areas of expenditure in all and every circumstance. I am sure he sincerely believed this. All of us are having to contemplate areas of policy change which we would not wish to do in normal times. When times were better I recall that in my budgets in the region of €4.4 billion extra was paid in welfare, and rightly so. It was well in excess of inflation, the consumer price index, CPI, or anything else. That is not something that could be confirmed in every year in which the Labour Party was in office. That is beside the point.

Eamon Gilmore (Dún Laoghaire, Labour)
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Come on.

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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That is a fact.

Séamus Kirk (Louth, Ceann Comhairle)
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The Taoiseach should be allowed to speak without interruption please.

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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It is a fact. It might be a surprising fact, but it is a fact.

Bernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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The fact is it still has to be paid for.

Séamus Kirk (Louth, Ceann Comhairle)
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The Taoiseach should be allowed to speak without interruption please.

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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The real issue for Deputy Gilmore and for us all is that despite comments to the contrary the policies we have been pursuing in the face of this crisis have been necessary to stabilise the economy. Of course it does not meet with popular acclaim, since it involves reductions in expenditure, some increases in taxation but also promoting as much growth as we can in the economy and stopping the contraction in the economy which was unprecedented in 2009. The fact is that there was a view in this House during those two years that those decisions were not necessary when they were necessary. Further decisions must be contemplated not because anyone takes any great pleasure out of considering them-----

Róisín Shortall (Dublin North West, Labour)
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Why are the Government's figures so wrong then?

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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-----but because they are necessary. Sovereign debt and all such issues have come into play in terms of how deficits are to be funded. The cost of funding those deficits has changed in recent years, even in the past six months compared to the previous situation.

Paul Connaughton Snr (Galway East, Fine Gael)
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In a couple of weeks.

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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The projections are precisely that, projections set out based on knowledge of the time.

Róisín Shortall (Dublin North West, Labour)
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When?

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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Of the time. Those decisions are not assumptions drawn up off the top of people's heads. They are assumptions which are drawn up based on whatever the commentary is at the time in respect of economic forecasting.

The reality is that we are in a situation that has been moving and changing consistently and considerably. That is true. We have been able to maintain a position where the economy has, thankfully, 1.86 million people working. We want to get more people back to work. The only way in which we can do that-----

P J Sheehan (Cork South West, Fine Gael)
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What about the half million unemployed?

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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-----is by making sure that we can confirm to those who are funding our deficits that we are prepared to pare back the gap between spending and taxation over a reasonable period in a way in which our debt dynamics do not continue to rise, which would be the case were one to prolong the situation beyond 2014. I understand and respect the arguments people put in that regard, but having considered them the problem is that one's level of debt can continue to rise and that can bring its own adverse reaction in terms of being able to fund the deficits one is trying to manage as equitably and best as one can while protecting the people one wants to protect to the greatest extent possible with the resources available.

Róisín Shortall (Dublin North West, Labour)
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Who are they?

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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Those are the current realities. What we must do is calmly, intelligently and to the greatest extent we can ascertain what measure of agreement there is among the parties.

Róisín Shortall (Dublin North West, Labour)
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The Taoiseach should account for himself.

Séamus Kirk (Louth, Ceann Comhairle)
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Deputy Shortall, only one speaker is allowed at a time.

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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I am not asking the Opposition not to oppose. I am not asking the Government not to govern. We all have respective duties to discharge in this House. We will bring forward our proposals on the basis of what we think is in the best interests of this country-----

Róisín Shortall (Dublin North West, Labour)
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When will the Taoiseach show them to us?

Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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-----in the circumstances in which we find ourselves for the purposes of making sure that this country can make progress again.

Róisín Shortall (Dublin North West, Labour)
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Where are the Government's proposals?