Jimmy Deenihan (Kerry North, Fine Gael)

Deputy Durkan was in full flight; I am sure he could happily have kept going for another ten minutes.

I am grateful to Deputy Durkan for sharing his time with me. If we care to read the spring report of the ESRI, we will see it outlines the serious economic circumstances in which we find ourselves. The most staggering information in it relates to the growth in unemployment. The ESRI commentators expect employment to be 1,917,000 in 2009, which is 187,300 lower than in 2008. That is frightening. It is now possible that we could have half a million unemployed in a year's time. That will have major implications for our system and I doubt we are prepared for it.

The Government is coming up with few real job creation initiatives. One such initiative, which I mentioned here recently and which I wish to bring to the attention of the Minister, is the restoration of the community youth training programmes, which were successful across the country in providing community initiative and care centres, dressing rooms for sporting clubs and so on. These projects were discontinued during the boom. The Construction Industry Federation was opposed to them on the basis that the trainees may have been replacing some of its contractors on projects. However, there is now little work for anyone, and apprentices in particular cannot finish their courses because they are unable to find employers with whom to complete their employment modules. Thus, many apprentices are now being told they will not qualify.

I suggest this be considered carefully and seriously. I mentioned this to the Minister of State's colleague, Deputy Dara Calleary, and he was supportive of such an initiative. A fair amount of serious employment would be created, and it would allow various apprentices - carpenters, plasterers, blocklayers, plumbers and electricians - to qualify while providing a good boost for communities across the country. I am aware of a number of projects that could go ahead tomorrow if such labour was available to them, as they have money available locally. Obviously, in the absence of National Lottery funding this year they cannot take on contractors, but they could use this type of system. I suggest, as a positive contribution to the debate, that this should be considered.

As the unemployment figures soar, unfortunately - unlike in the 1980s and early 1990s, when large numbers of people left to go to the USA, the UK and Australia - there are few places where people would now be rewarded sufficiently to encourage them to go. We know how difficult it is to get into America, but it is also the case for Australia. I have had inquiries from a number of parents looking for contacts in places such as Sydney, where there was an abundance of jobs some years ago but it is now difficult to get work. This will become a major challenge for the Government in the next five years, but in the immediate future we need creative ideas and approaches to meet this challenge. Sitting back and doing nothing will only make the problem worse.

The other economic commentary I examined was the report of the Economist Intelligence Unit on Ireland from May 2009. This is also quite pessimistic. It reports that correction of the banking system will be a considerable challenge because of the way in which we are exposed. The EIU is more or less in agreement with the IMF's analysis of Ireland in its financial stability report, indicating that we have major problems and because of our toxic assets it will be quite challenging for us to resolve our banking crisis.

As I have mentioned here before, although there have been major changes in the structures and directorships of AIB, in Anglo Irish Bank most of the same people are still there and there has not been major reform. The Minister will probably know more about this, but Anglo Irish Bank is still issuing loans to some of the people who have received major loans in the past. This sends out a bad signal. There has been major scrutiny of Anglo Irish Bank and there shortly will be a report recommending more capital input from Government to keep it going, but it is still approving loans for people who may not be held in the highest regard. The same people are still there running the business. The Government did act but the banks themselves have not so far taken any action. Except in AIB, the same personnel are still mostly in place.

NAMA will have major difficulties with many of the assets that are spread around the world, including trophy assets in places such as New York. I know of people who are involved in property in New York who could not compete with Irish investors because they could get money so easily.

The Minister no doubt has been approached by incoming tour operators, especially those involved in golf. This Finance Bill will introduce the tour operators margins scheme, TOMS, which is VAT on tour operators' profit margins, with an implementation date of 1 January 2010. I understand the details have not been finalised by the Revenue Commissioners, but this will put the operators at a major disadvantage. Most incoming tour operators already have business on their books for 2010, and they will be forced to carry the VAT charges themselves. More importantly, Ireland will be offering prices for 2010 that are at least 2% higher than those for 2009. This is at a time when suppliers in Ireland and every other destination are maintaining or reducing prices. At a minimum, there should be a derogation and the implementation date could be pushed back until at least January 2012. I ask the Minister to give serious consideration to this on Committee Stage.

The tour operators margins scheme will add between 2% and 4% to the cost of a tourist package holiday in Ireland, in addition to other increases such as airport charges, and will make Ireland a less attractive destination. Tourism faces major challenges across the world and every country is responding in various ways but we seem to be heading the wrong way, making our tourism product less competitive. Golf attracts many high spending tourists to County Kerry. Golf clubs are reducing green fees in Waterville, the Barrow in Tralee and even in Ballybunion. This charge, however, will lead to an increase in prices, making us less competitive. Perhaps the Minister will introduce an amendment on Committee Stage that will postpone it for two years.

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