Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 15 November 2023

Joint Oireachtas Committee on European Union Affairs

Future Treaty Change in the European Union: Discussion

Dr. Barry Colfer:

I will do my best to respond. The Cathaoirleach has expertly set out many of the challenges. I do not have answers for all of them but I have comments for three of them. In terms of the whole project kicking off in the 1950s as a group of like-minded countries, it is important to remember a couple of things. All of those countries' economies lay in ruins at the time. There were three overlapping reasons or impulses for the six countries to be driven together. One was the maintenance of peace. As we know, the Continent had kicked itself to pieces for 1,000 years and those countries were trying to set that aside. The second reason was to promote economic activity and raise the standard of living in Europe by creating good social and economic opportunities for people. The third consideration was to avert the threat of communism. There was a risk coming from the east. If we take those three fundamentals, Ukraine satisfies those tests. There is a need to maintain peace. Ukraine has a big economy with a global impact on food security, which is ever-increasing in its importance. There is also the idea of putting a bulwark between ourselves and Russia. I would say humbly that the Ukraine joining the EU fits into the original narrative of the bloc.

The Cathaoirleach has pointed towards probably the most important issue, which is that the values of the Union are fundamental. I have battled my way through most of the treaty at this stage but I always remind people that there are three things to read, which are the preamble and Articles 2 and 3. They set out the fundamental purpose of the bloc. It speaks to the fundamental values, the protection of minorities and the social market economy, as Deputy Ó Murchú said. As we move east, what is obvious is that there will be a tilting of interests. The values remain the same and cannot change but the interests will change. There is obviously a reckoning coming in that regard. It has already happened since 2004. The emphasis and what is important in Croatia, Estonia and Romania is different from what is important in Ireland. It is important to point out, as difficult as it is to say at this juncture, that Ukrainian democracy has its flaws, that much is clear, but so do many other of the potential new EU member states. The whole idea of concentric circles, including the likes of the UK and Türkiye, is going to gain prominence in the discourse.

I said that the ideas of values and interests are probably the most difficult pieces of the puzzle. Perhaps the biggest risk, as the Cathaoirleach pointed towards, relates to the raising of expectations and the Europe ultimately saying "No". We just have to look at the example of Northern Macedonia, which jumped through many hoops. It is a good democracy with many pro-European voices within it. Still it has been kept in the waiting room. Imagine, in Ireland, going to the public and telling them we are going to change the name of the country so that something happens, and then it does not happen. That is a harbinger for what may be to come.

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