Rose Conway-Walsh (Mayo, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

I am a politician as well. This is absolutely critical and I think the witness underestimates politicians in a sense by putting it all into one category. We absolutely know that we need evidence. The issue with this - and obviously the reason it attracted attention - was that for the first time, it used the €20 billion figure. The focus was so narrow that to have a conclusion like that means there are a lot a gaps that need to be discussed, some of which we have discussed here today. I apologise, because I had to go to the Chamber for questions to the Minister for public expenditure while the witnesses were here. We agree, however, that it is critical that when they go to vote, and long before then, that people will know exactly what it will mean for their families, for themselves and so on and that we can project that into the future.

Macroeconomic modelling is vital and I absolutely agree it should have been done years ago. I am glad it is being done now. I am concerned, in respect of the data available, that we do not have proper congruence between North and South and we do not have the disaggregation with regard to the UK. Pressure needs to be put on politically across the board in that regard, as well with economists, to have that data. The press will pick out parts of the report. I note in the conclusion the witnesses suggest, when going into the benefits, that this could substantially reduce the cost of unification.

I will go back to the education issue again because respectfully, I disagree with our guests about it taking 20 to 30 years for any policies that are implemented now to take effect. I am particularly looking at the NEET category, that is, those not in education, employment or training. In some bits of work I did myself, I have looked at Germany, where they have such a low number of the 18 to 24-year-olds in that category. They have a rate of 7.7% as opposed to the South, where we have a rate of 12.4%. We only have the overall UK rate in this regard, which is at 13.5%. If we were to make interventions at that level for those youngsters, I really do not believe would take 20 to 30 years to see. We are not going from zero to 100 and would see incremental changes that would raise productivity.

In terms of FDI, and this may have been talked about in respect of corporation tax harmonisation, obviously there is the four-point difference there. Have the difference that a 1% rate reduction would make, as well as the dual market access, been modelled? If we look at the figures since the protocol, the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, NISRA, figures indicated a 13.2% increase in sales in the North, as well as a 14.5% increase amounting to £3.2 billion in external sales in 2021. They also indicated a 23% increase, that is, £1 billion, in exports to the Republic, as well as a 13.6% increase, £9.2 billion, in total sales. Rather than us having a negative approach, there is a trajectory there, provided we invest in the drivers. I welcome the investment from the South as well and the investment in infrastructure obviously will have an impact on productivity. It would seem that the trajectory is positive and provided we make the interventions in the right places, we can increase productivity and foreign direct investment and that the future is much more optimistic than our guests would say, regardless of what the constitutional preference might be when people come to vote.